Re: 2pid, I really want to know

On May 10, 10:52=A0pm, "Shhhh! I'm Listening to Reason!"
<artygu...@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> wrote:
> On May 11, 12:28=A0am, ScottW <Scott...@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> wrote:
>
>
>
>
>
> > On May 10, 1:15=A0pm, "Shhhh! I'm Listening to Reason!"
>
> > <artygu...@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> wrote:
> > > On May 10, 2:56=A0pm, ScottW <Scott...@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> wrote:
>
> > > > =A0So your point is..why maintain a deterrent?
>
> > > No, there are other things that we could do, assuming your earlier
> > > comment was correct.
>
> > > > Because even a US unopposed Chinese invasion of Taiwan is going
> > > > to have serious consequences for the US.
>
> > > Even if we seriously opposed it our chances of success are very
> > > limited. They'd have about 150 miles to travel. We'd have thousands.
> > > Look at a map. Taiwan would largely be on their own.
>
> > For a time.
>
> Until we "pulled the trigger" I suppose.
>
> Not gonna happen.

 Hillary would nuke 'em without batting an eyelash.

>
> > Hence our weapons sales to Taiwan.
>
> Indeed. Our tacit admission that they're on their own.
>
> > > We pulled out
> > > years ago.
>
> > > > Do you really think US trade relations would be unaffected?
> > > > The dollar? =A0Chinese holdings of US bonds?
>
> > > Where did I say that? However, China taking over Hong Kong was not a
> > > big deal, despite claims that it would lead to a calamity for the
> > > population and world markets.
>
> > Peaceful transition. =A0US policy is to achieve the same for Taiwan.
>
> We cannot do that. We can strive to,

Exactly, and maintaining a credible deterrent is part of
striving.

> we can hope for, but we cannot
> *do*. The Taiwanese have a say in it.
>
> > > > The US policy is to maintain a position the gives peacful
> > > > negotiated resolution to the problem the only path to solution.
>
> > > Absolutes are seldom the case in the real world, 2pid. There is no
> > > "only".
>
> > > > China is clearly pursuing the capability to have a military
option.
> > > > We can make that option much harder to acquire.
>
> > > No, we can't.
>
> > =A0 Yes we can.
>
> How would you propose making the Chinese pursuing a military option
> "harder to acquire"?

 By raising the bar both through improving Taiwans self defense and
maintaining a credible and formidable rapid response capability.
The F-22 is essential to that role as the strategy to bring
large numbers of aircraft to the battlefield quickly is
simply not realistic.

>
> > > They're getting their technology from the Russians,
> > > among others.
>
> > =A0But I was told they don't have an answer for the lowly F-16?
> > I'm shocked to hear this isn't true....lol.
>
> You're on crack. The F-16 and F-15 can fight with any aircraft out
> there right now. That isn't an "answer for".

The argument morphs again. Now no one has an argument
for the F-16 AND F-15.  Do you ever stay with one position?

Anyway, I've repeatedly  shown that your statement re the F-16
is false.  For example.
http://www.abovetopsecret.com/forum/thread43337/pg1

The Mig-29, even with it's short range which is not much of a problem
for the Chinese over the Taiwan straight bests the F-16.

As far as your claim that the F-15 remains dominant,
that is also highly disputed.

http://vayu-sena.tripod.com/exercise-iaf-usaf-su30-f15-article01.html

and more directly

http://vayu-sena.tripod.com/comparison-f15-su30-1.html


>
> > > All we could possibly do is make exercising it a little
> > > more costly. I'd predict at most a token show to save face.
>
> > > Do you suppose we'd go nuclear over Taiwan? Would we nuke China if
> > > they chose to nuke Taiwan?
>
> > =A0 No. =A0But it would be the end of trade with China for 100 years.
> > > If we aren't willing to go the whole way, we'd better not go at all.
>
> > =A0Lessons learned from Vietnam?
>
> Lessons learned long before that. When would you advocate committing
> US lives without seeking total military victory?

  When the objective is not to escalate to all "out war" with China
which risks a nuclear exchange
but to deter a military invasion of Taiwan.

ScottW